The hurricane research team at Colorado State University has released its initial hurricane forecast for 2019. The outlook states that the 2019 season is expected to be slightly below normal activity, thanks in part to a weak El Nino. The forecast touches on several important points, but the most important one to note, especially for coastal residents, is that it only takes one tropical storm or hurricane landfall to make the season active.
Although, residents living in the general Atlantic tropical storm belt should always be prepared well in advance of the annual hurricane season, forecasting offers a more accurate outlook of things to come. These forecasts are important because they provide bases on which plans can be made for the hurricane season. National disaster and emergency management agencies can use this information as they formulate disaster relief efforts and mobilize disaster relief teams and resources.
Colorado State University has been providing forecasts of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season for thirty-six years. The seasonal forecasts provided by CSU were developed by the late Dr. William Gray, who was a leading author and researcher in topics related to weather and hurricanes. Along with his guidance and tutelage, several former students have made valuable contributions to hurricane forecasting, which is in itself a relatively difficult science.
The university mentions several people who were instrumental in creating these seasonal forecasts. They are Chris Landsea, John Knaff and Eric Blake. We have also benefited from meteorological discussions with Carl Schreck, Louis-Philippe Caron, Brian McNoldy, Paul Roundy, Jason Dunion, Peng Xian and Amato Evan. Additionally, predictions are released with support from several partners including Interstate Restoration, Ironshore Insurance; the Insurance Information Institute; Weatherboy; the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation and the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State University.
Seasonal Hurricane Forecast for 2019
The 2019 seasonal hurricane forecast provides an outlook that there will be 13 named tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. Of the five hurricanes, two are expected to be major hurricanes with a Category 3 rating or higher. The developing El Nino conditions will have an impact on the Atlantic hurricane season. It is believed that this may be the underlying reason for what is forecast to be a “slightly below average” hurricane season.
Additionally, the forecast also looks at the landfall probabilities of named storms impacting countries in the Caribbean and the Americas. This is an important aspect of the research by CSU and its partners. There is a 95% chance that the United States will be impacted; an 80% chance that the Gulf Coast will be hit; a 77% chance that Florida and the East Coast will be impacted; and a 94% chance that a named storm will hit the Caribbean.
Because of the dynamics of weather and weather forecasting, the CSU will be issuing updates to its seasonal hurricane forecast for 2019. These updates will be released on 01 June, 02 July and 06 August. In November 2019, discussions and analyses of these forecasts will be issued.
To read the report in full, please visit the Colorado State University’s website.