Category: Forecasts and Outlooks

The hurricane research team at Colorado State University has released its initial hurricane forecast for 2019. The outlook states that the 2019 season is expected to be slightly below normal activity, thanks in part to a weak El Nino. The forecast touches on several important points, but the most important one to note, especially for coastal residents, is that it only takes one tropical storm or hurricane landfall to make the season active.

Although, residents living in the general Atlantic tropical storm belt should always be prepared well in advance of the annual hurricane season, forecasting offers a more accurate outlook of things to come. These forecasts are important because they provide bases on which plans can be made for the hurricane season. National disaster and emergency management agencies can use this information as they formulate disaster relief efforts and mobilize disaster relief teams and resources.

Seasonal Forecasts

Colorado State University has been providing forecasts of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season for thirty-six years. The seasonal forecasts provided by CSU were developed by the late Dr. William Gray, who was a leading author and researcher in topics related to weather and hurricanes. Along with his guidance and tutelage, several former students have made valuable contributions to hurricane forecasting, which is in itself a relatively difficult science.

The university mentions several people who were instrumental in creating these seasonal forecasts. They are Chris Landsea, John Knaff and Eric Blake. We have also benefited from meteorological discussions with Carl Schreck, Louis-Philippe Caron, Brian McNoldy, Paul Roundy, Jason Dunion, Peng Xian and Amato Evan. Additionally, predictions are released with support from several partners including Interstate Restoration, Ironshore Insurance; the Insurance Information Institute; Weatherboy; the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation and the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State University.

Seasonal Hurricane Forecast for 2019

The 2019 seasonal hurricane forecast provides an outlook that there will be 13 named tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. Of the five hurricanes, two are expected to be major hurricanes with a Category 3 rating or higher. The developing El Nino conditions will have an impact on the Atlantic hurricane season. It is believed that this may be the underlying reason for what is forecast to be a “slightly below average” hurricane season.

Additionally, the forecast also looks at the landfall probabilities of named storms impacting countries in the Caribbean and the Americas. This is an important aspect of the research by CSU and its partners. There is a 95% chance that the United States will be impacted; an 80% chance that the Gulf Coast will be hit; a 77% chance that Florida and the East Coast will be impacted; and a 94% chance that a named storm will hit the Caribbean.

Because of the dynamics of weather and weather forecasting, the CSU will be issuing updates to its seasonal hurricane forecast for 2019. These updates will be released on 01 June, 02 July and 06 August. In November 2019, discussions and analyses of these forecasts will be issued.

To read the report in full, please visit the Colorado State University’s website.

Each year, people wait with bated breath for the latest meteorological predictions for the hurricane season. For some, the formation of one tropical storm is very bad news, because it could mean a setback for countries still recovering from the previous hurricane seasons. For others, it could mean that the chances of a direct hit by a storm are significantly reduced.

Tropical storm outlooks and predictions require the highly scientific work of esteemed hurricane scientists who tirelessly pore over weather models. One of the results of this work and analysis is a best guess prediction that states how many tropical storms will be expected and whether or not the season will be active.

Meteorological professionals are unfairly accused of providing inaccurate information. But, it should be noted that because weather changes so rapidly, it is almost impossible to forecast every possible occurrence. Weather scientists can look at data of what has happened in the past and make predictions based on this information.

2018 Hurricane Predictions

In April 2018, the first prediction for the 2018 tropical storm season was released. It was stated that there would be fourteen named storms, six of which would form into hurricanes and two of which would be severe.

However, in July 2018, a revised outlook showed that the season was expected to be a low activity one. The revised prediction was that there would be ten named tropical storms, and of these, four would form into hurricanes. This revision came as a result of changes in the meteorological world.  Named storms of the 2018 Atlantic tropical storm season include Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helen and Isaac.

There are cooler ocean temperatures which mean that there is less support for tropical storm development. Additionally, there is the belief that the oceans are transitioning towards an El Nino occurrence, which is a drought like event. Also wind pressure gradients are strengthening, which make it more difficult for storms to form in the Atlantic and progress on their usual path through the Caribbean and upwards to North America.

Impact of Meteorological Predictions

The impact of meteorological predictions is not just limited to the people in countries which may be affected by tropical storm activity. Insurance companies around the world, who have interests in the region are also interested in these predictions. Past tropical storm seasons in conjunction with predictions for the future seasons can impact insurance rates and premiums.

For some, these predictions bring stress due to thoughts of what could happen. As the most active period in the 2018 hurricane season approaches, people living in storm prone areas, should be prepared for anything and everything. Because of extensive monitoring by sites like Weather Underground and Weather, it’s easier to track storms from the time they form off the coast of Africa.

Be prepared.

References

Caribbean Business: Puerto Rico under tsunami of insurance claims caused by Hurricane Maria

Wall Street Journal: Hurricane Maria Caused as Much as $85 Billion in Insured Losses, AIR Worldwide Says

Florida Office of Insurance Regulation: Hurricane Irma Claims Data

Orlando Weekly: Hurricane Irma insurance losses in Florida pegged at nearly $7.4 billion

Weather Underground: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Now Expected to Be Less Active