Weather Forecasts and Outlooks

Forecasts and Outlooks 2.0

Accurate forecasts and outlooks can make all the difference when it comes to being prepared for tropical storms and hurricanes. The science of meteorology is rapidly advancing and this has resulted in more detailed forecasting that offers greater insights into weather events. Weather forecasting itself is a detailed process that includes the collection and observation of raw data which is gathered from several sources.

Forecasts and Outlooks

The World Meteorological Organisation has defined meteorological forecasting ranges, which range from nowcasting to seasonal outlooks. Nowcasting describes “current weather forecasting” where a weather event may occur anytime between 0 and 2 hours from the current time, whilst seasonal outlooks are average weather values for a particular period of time, usually referred to as a season.

Short-Term Weather Forecasts

Short term weather forecasts provide a more immediate outlook of what weather can be expected in the short term. The National Weather Service states that the main purpose of the short term forecast is to “provide users with a concise, non-technical short term forecast of ongoing weather conditions.”

NCAR RAL LogoWho: The Research Applications Laboratory conduct research that enhances weather monitoring, nowcasting and forecasting.
What: The Research Applications Laboratory is one of the libraries in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Where: Online
More: The Research Applications Laboratory also performs collaborative research in the area of atmospheric and related sciences.
Earth NetworksWho: Earth Networks helps organisations to mitigate weather related risks
What: Through its revolutionary ENcast innovation, Earth Networks provides accurate short-term forecasts that can be produced for specific locations.
What: The Research Applications Laboratory is one of the libraries in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Where: Online
More: Earth Networks’ weather forecasts are more accurate and reduces the occurrence of forecasting errors.

Medium-Term, Seasonal & Long-Term Outlooks

Medium term forecasts, seasonal forecasts and long-term forecasts are even more complex than creating short term forecasts. Many websites and companies often predict what weather is likely to occur at some time in the future. But, there is always the possibility for weather expectations to deviate. This often causes some frustrations among weather watchers and enthusiasts, especially during the tropical storm season.

The Old Farmer's AlmanacWho: The Old Farmer’s Almanac is a periodical published for home makers, gardeners and weather watchers.
What: Long range weather forecasts are based on solar science, climatology and meteorology.
Where: Online, In Store
More: Long range forecasts cover regions in the United States of America.
CPC LogoWho: The Climate Prediction Centre develops products that cover time scales from one week to seasons.
What: The Research Applications Laboratory is one of the libraries in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Where: Online
More: The Center aims to promote the management of risk and thus create a climate-resilient society.
Con Wx LogoWho: ConWx is a knowledge based company that provides advanced weather and energy forecasting services.
What: ConWx provides forecasts for retail purposes, wind farm operations and conducts wind site assessments.
Where: Online
More: ConWx focuses on solutions for energy and offshore related needs.

References:
Britannica: Principles and Methodology of Weather Forecasting
World Meteorological Organisation: Definitions of Meteorological Forecasting Ranges
Penn State College of Earth and Mineral Sciences: A World of Weather
NOAA Climate.gov: Weather Forecasts Versus Climate Outlooks: What’s the difference?
Precision AG: Weather Forecasting: How Does It Work, and How Reliable Is It?

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